Bitcoin Spot ETF Approval Timeline Prediction and Bull Run Analysis

This article predicts the timing of the approval of the Bitcoin Spot ETF and the start time of the bull run, and analyzes the possible situations that may occur after the ETF is approved.

1. Prediction of ETF Approval and Bull Run Start Time

Based on the reference to the approval time of the last round of Grayscale Trust, the most likely scenario currently is:

1. In January 2024, the Bitcoin Spot ETF application ( will be submitted, and the Federal Reserve will stop raising interest rates or the market will have no expectation of interest rate hikes ).
2. The Bitcoin Spot ETF will come into effect in April 2024 ( before the Bitcoin halving, which will help attract funds )
3. The Bitcoin bull run officially starts in July 2024 after the adjustment following the halving, with expectations of monetary easing being fulfilled (.
4. The Federal Reserve will begin the interest rate cut cycle in September 2024, implementing a monetary easing policy. The expectations for interest rate cuts will be released, and the risk markets will cash in 1-2 months in advance, which can be referenced against the GDP > CPI indicator.

The judgment that the bull run starts in July rather than when the ETF takes effect is because there is usually a 2-3 month adjustment period after the halving. Considering the current macro market's expectations of interest rate cuts, the timing is set for July.

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2. Review of the Starting Point of the 2020 Bull Run: Grayscale GBTC Trust's Journey

• November 2019: Grayscale submitted a registration application for the GBTC trust fund to the SEC.
• January 2020: GBTC trust received SEC approval for registration.
• April 2020: GBTC trust officially came into effect, rapidly expanding in scale.
• The 2020 grayscale bull run brought approximately over 10 billion USD in incremental funds to the crypto space, and the total market incremental funds may reach the hundred billion level.

The GBTC secondary market premium once reached over 30%. Grayscale holds 654,885 BTC, with an estimated cost of 8.931 billion USD, averaging about 13.7 thousand USD.

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3. Possible Starting Point and Incremental Funds of This Bull Run

In 2020, Grayscale brought in about $10 billion, resulting in approximately $100 billion in incremental funds. In 2021, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies reached a peak of $3 trillion, approximately 30 times higher than in 2019.

In the same manner, the funds flowing into this bull run need to exceed hundreds of billions. BlackRock's application for a Bitcoin ETF to be approved is a necessary condition for the next bull run, and it will take about six months for the ETF to be truly approved.

It is expected that the incremental funds from the ETF will exceed Grayscale's existing fund size )$25.5 billion (, but it will still not be enough to trigger a big bull run. Another necessary condition is that the market has sufficient monetary liquidity.

The approval of the Bitcoin Spot ETF is expected to bring hundreds of billions of dollars in liquidity to the crypto market, increasing the total market cap by at least a trillion, surpassing the highest valued companies in the world.

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Four Necessary Conditions for the Start of the Next Bull Run

1. SEC approves Spot BTC ETF
2. The next Bitcoin halving
3. Monetary easing, excessive market liquidity

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5. Analysis of the Impact After the Approval of Bitcoin Spot ETF

Referencing the process of the US Gold ETF, we predict what may happen after the Bitcoin Spot ETF is approved:

1. The market has sustained expectations before the ETF approval, which can be seen as a positive.
2. After the ETF approval, there is still a slight surge.
3. Shortly after the ETF starts trading, there may be a significant drop after reaching a peak, potentially falling below the previous price.

Comprehensive analysis shows that the approval of the ETF is not sufficient to directly trigger a bull run. It mainly influences market sentiment and drives on-site capital, but the current economy has not recovered, monetary policy is tight, and capital is difficult to sustain inflow. The possibility of maintaining high-level fluctuations is relatively high, but it is difficult to last.

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6. Current Economic Environment and Monetary Policy

• Economic Environment: The macroeconomic situation in the U.S. in 2023 is unstable, with high inflation rates, weak GDP growth, a low unemployment rate, an inverted yield curve, and facing economic challenges.
• Monetary Policy: In 2023, the Federal Reserve implemented a tightening policy of interest rate hikes and balance sheet reduction. The interest rate reached 5.25%, and while rate hikes have not yet stopped, they are nearing an end. The market expects interest rate cuts to begin in September 2024.

The Bitcoin Spot ETF will allow tens of millions of new investors to invest in Bitcoin through the ETF, increasing its legitimacy. More funds will enter the market subsequently. However, the timing is not yet right, and it is necessary to continue monitoring market information and macro changes to adjust judgments.

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