Let me say a few words, the current fall is because the market is becoming more and more long people think that there will be no interest rate cuts this year, and the major Financial Institution are also very divided on interest rate cuts.

And I said before the release of the PCE data in the United States on the night of April 24, "The impact of the current economic data on the market is really limited", which seems to be wrong.

At that time, I thought that the market had exhausted the expectation of a postponement of the rate cut (from June to September or even November),

However, since this week, several Fed officials and some institutions have bet that there will be no interest rate cuts in 2024, and the fundamentals have deteriorated rapidly

At that time, I thought that there would be a rate cut at least once in 24 years, but I really didn't expect that now more and more long people are standing in the camp of not cutting interest rates, so I buy the dips vigorously around 60,000.

The market is changing faster than I expected.

If Powell's hawkish speech after the Fed's Intrerest Rate decision tonight is expected, it is estimated that the market will also fall in May. If Powell gives a little sweetness and expects to cut interest rates this year, it is estimated that the market will stop falling

But I think this year is an election year after all, and the performance of the financial market should not be too ugly, and it is estimated that interest rates will be cut once (this view does not refer to economic data, but refers to the forecast of the political landscape, I don't know if it is accurate)

So I personally bet that there will be 1-2 rate cuts this year, and I personally bet that the earliest rate cut this year will not be earlier than September. The crypto world market gradually picked up in May and June.

But if the situation is unexpected, and Powell makes hawkish speeches, such as directly saying that "there are no plans to cut interest rates this year", or the dot plot does not expect a rate cut this year, then the market will go fall.

Let's wait and see how the market goes

#BTC