Pumpfun (PUMP) price prediction: exchange reserves down 12% suggest accumulation, Technical Analysis warns of a potential fall of 20%.

The native Token PUMP of the Meme coin issuance platform Pumpfun has fallen for three consecutive days, with a 6.5% drop in the last 24 hours, now reported at $0.00276. Although the volume has increased by 25% against the trend, the platform's revenue has plummeted from $2.59 million to $1.41 million, coupled with the market pressure from the widespread decline of Bitcoin and Ethereum, leading to a bearish sentiment in the short term. On-chain data shows that the reserves of the exchange have decreased by 12.4% within 30 days, which may indicate that long-term investors are accumulating on dips. The technical analysis shows that if it breaks the key support at $0.0027, the price may further dip to $0.0022.

1. Decline in income and market pressure are the main reasons for the fall.

The decline in PUMP prices is closely related to two major factors:

Market Weakness: Bitcoin has fallen 3.5% in the last 24 hours, Ethereum has dipped 4.25%, leading to a 3.07% reduction in the overall cryptocurrency market capitalization, with altcoins generally under pressure.

Platform revenue sharply decreased: Pumpfun platform revenue fell from $2.59 million on August 13 to $1.41 million (a decline of over 45%), and this revenue is used for PUMP Token buybacks, directly impacting price support.

Despite a 25% rise in volume, the price-volume divergence reflects that market selling pressure dominates short-term trends.

2. The decline in exchange reserves indicates a long-term accumulation signal.

On-chain data provider Nansen's monitoring shows that the reserves of the PUMP exchange have decreased by 12.43% in the past 30 days. Such data usually indicates that tokens are flowing from the exchange to private wallets, which may be a sign of large holders accumulating at lower prices, potentially forming a bullish foundation in the medium to long term.

Currently, the price is fluctuating, and the short-term trading sentiment is diverging from the long-term holding strategy. It is necessary to be vigilant about the market's bullish and bearish power conversion points.

3. Technical Analysis: Key Support Determines Future Direction

(Source: TradingView)

From a technical perspective:

• Daily level: The price has been oscillating in the range of $0.00273 to $0.0032 for 6 consecutive trading days, but continues to be under pressure from the descending trend line, showing an overall bearish structure over the past 13 days.
• 4-hour level: The price is hovering near the neckline of the double bottom pattern. If it breaks below the 0.0027 USD support, it may open up a 20% fall (target 0.0022 USD); conversely, if it breaks above the 0.0032 USD resistance, it may trigger a technical rebound.

Four, Conclusion

PUMP is facing dual pressures of shrinking revenue and a weakening market in the short term, but the decrease in exchange reserves suggests that some investors are quietly positioning themselves. Traders should closely monitor the effectiveness of the $0.0027 support level; if it falls below this, there is a need to guard against accelerated downside risks. For long-term holders, the current price level may provide opportunities for gradual accumulation, but strict position control and setting stop-loss orders are necessary. Given the high volatility characteristics of the Meme coin ecosystem, it is recommended to combine platform fundamentals with macroeconomic conditions for a comprehensive assessment.