In the Crypto Assets market, the performance of Bitcoin often becomes the focus of investors' attention. Recently, an interesting observation caught my attention: by reviewing the monthly performance statistics of Bitcoin, I found that August and September are generally periods of stagnation for Bitcoin. However, this year's situation may be different, mainly due to the market's general expectation that there may be interest rate cuts in September.

Historical data shows that Bitcoin tends to show a downward trend most of the time in August and September, especially in September, which almost every year presents a red downward trend. This seems to have become a seasonal pattern for Bitcoin, reflecting a relatively weak fund and market sentiment during this period.

However, the situation seems to be slightly different this year. With August just starting, Bitcoin has only dropped by about 1%, which is much better than the performance in the same period in previous years. According to historical patterns, there may still be some fluctuations in September, but starting from October, new opportunities usually arise.

However, if interest rate cuts are really implemented in September, the market reaction may be different from previous years:

1. A rate cut usually signifies an improvement in liquidity expectations, which may lead to a more relaxed funding environment compared to previous years. The market may even speculate on this favorable factor in advance, so a significant drop in September may not necessarily occur.

2. In the crypto assets market, we often see the phenomenon of "prices rising in anticipation of good news and dropping once it materializes." Therefore, there may be a wave of increases in the second half of August, and after the interest rate cut policy is officially implemented in September, the market may experience fluctuations or even corrections.

3. It is important to note that this year the price of Bitcoin has already reached a high level (over 110,000). If large investors believe that the current valuation is slightly high, then interest rate cuts may only bring short-term stimulus and may not necessarily change the long-term trend.

Although historical data shows certain patterns, this year's market environment and expectations for interest rate cuts have added many variables to the situation. Ultimately, whether the market first experiences a wave of increases followed by a pullback, or continues to rise directly, largely depends on whether funds choose to chase high prices or take profits first.

In this case, investors need to closely follow market trends, weigh various factors, and make informed investment decisions. Regardless, this potential change in the Bitcoin market will undoubtedly bring us a fall filled with challenges and opportunities.