0718 Bitcoin/Ethereum market report 📢📢📣📣 #加密法案投票周#

1. The price of Bitcoin has shown a rebound driven by favorable policies (the stablecoin bill and the Clarity Act passing), returning to the psychological level of $120,000. The technical analysis indicates a resonant upward trend of "policy catalysis + on-chain tightening". However, it subsequently fell back to $118,000 due to profit-taking by bulls, continuing a phase of consolidation. In the short term, the market is characterized by being institution-led and policy-driven, but caution is needed regarding the risk of a significant correction caused by short-term emotional exhaustion.
The current price of Bitcoin is around $119,000, fluctuating between $118,500 and $120,500 during the day. If it regains the resistance at $120,500, the short-term target looks at $123,000 (the historical high). The key support below is raised to around $118,000 and $116,900 (short-term trendline support). Therefore, if the price continues to hold steady or closes above $118,000, the next target could be $125,000. Technical risks: The daily RSI may bounce back to 55 and then drop again. If it breaks below the $116,900 support, it could accelerate the pullback to $115,000 (50-day moving average). Also, be cautious of a "false breakout" pattern; if the price holds steady above $120,000 but the trading volume fails to increase, it may trigger profit-taking by bulls. Conversely, if it breaks below the short-term trendline and fails to expand, buying on dips may return.

📕📕Summary: On-chain supply contraction data + institutional capital inflow + favorable policy implementation provides solid support for prices. A technical breakout above $120,000 opens up upward space, but in the short term, one must be wary of emotional exhaustion and the sustainability of low-volume upward movement. Therefore, a "short-term band operation + medium to long-term low-position layout" strategy can be adopted, making good use of pullback layouts for stability.

🔑🔑Operational advice: Intraday short-term: Long: If the price retraces to $118,500-$118,000, consider a light long position with a target of $120,500 and a stop loss set at $117,000; Short: If it breaks below $117,000 and fills the lower shadow, consider a light short position near $117,800 with a target of $115,600. Volatile scenario: Bullish strategy: Gradually buy in the range of $118,000-$119,000, with a stop loss at $116,000 and a target of $122,000; Bearish strategy: Light short in the range of $122,000-$123,000, with a stop loss at $125,000 and a target of $119,000.

2. Under the favorable policies and the push from institutional funds, Ethereum has successfully broken through the long-term resistance level of $3450 (the January 2025 high) and opened up upward space. In the short term, the price has formed an ascending channel pattern on the 4-hour chart, with the lower boundary of the channel around $3400. If it retraces to this range, it may present another buying opportunity. The key resistance levels above are $3700 (psychological level) and $3850. If it successfully breaks through $3700, a rapid upward channel towards $4000 may open in the medium term; conversely, if an unexpected event triggers a break below the lower boundary of the channel at $3400, it may trigger a technical retracement to $3250.

📕📕Summary: Ethereum is currently in a breakthrough upward cycle stage. Technically, it may be overbought in the short term, but there are clear bullish signals in the medium term. Closely monitor the breakthrough of the upper boundary resistance at $3700 and the validity of the support at $3400. With a clear trend, it is recommended to adopt a buy-the-dip strategy, but strict stop-loss settings are necessary, prioritizing opportunities after profit breakthroughs in the main upward wave.

🔑🔑Trading Recommendations: 1. If the price breaks through the resistance level of $3700 with increased trading volume, consider taking a small long position, targeting around $3850, with stop losses set at $3650 and $3520. 2. If it unexpectedly breaks below the lower boundary of the rising channel at $3420-$3400, and RSI is less than 40, consider taking a small short position, targeting $3260-$3200, with stop losses at $3450 and $3520.

Special reminder: This article is for readers' reference only and should not be used as investment advice!!!