Use quantitative strategies to control risk, patiently wait for the bull run

1. About Trader Painter

1. Painter's trading strategy:

• Capital allocation:

  • The cryptocurrency market is positioned as a highly risky market, with no more than 30% of total assets allocated.
  • Mainly allocated to mid-low frequency quantitative trading ( trend strategies )

• Expected Returns and Risk Control:

  • Ideally, the annualized return is around 50% without leverage (
  • Set stop losses for any trades, with a maximum loss limit of 2%-5% per trade.

• Trading logic:

  • The trend is the source of profit
  • Use time as leverage, not capital.
  • Long-term survival, waiting for the liquidity bonus cycle

2. The reason for forming such trading strategies:

• After two years of subjective trading with no returns, the profits became evident after starting quantitative trading in 2020.
• Recognizing that mid to low frequency quantification is counterintuitive but conforms to market trends.
• It is recommended to have the feasible strategies executed by the robot to avoid human intervention.

3. Suitable audience:

For those who want to take trading seriously. It can help cultivate good trading habits and is the starting point of a true trader's journey.

2. The Trading Story of Painter

1. Analysis of the reasons for the "805" crash:

• The Yen Carry Trade is the main reason
• The market has been in long-term fluctuations, lacking large-scale liquidations, which has increased the probability of high volatility.

2. Current Market Stage Judgment:

• In the early consolidation phase of a liquidity bull run
• Similar to the 2019 bull run, preparing for the big bull in 2025.
• A bull run is expected around mid-2025 or the third quarter.

3. When the trading strategy becomes ineffective:

• Any strategy has a profit period and a drawdown period.
• The current expansion zone's oscillating market is unfavorable for trend strategies.

4. Stop Doing List:

• Never make big mistakes, avoid large drawdowns that can damage funds and mindset.
• Don't expect a "big wave of recovering losses", instead accumulate through many small profits.

3. Painter's 【Must Read】

1. Recommended Traders:

• YouTube influencer Luo Sheng
• "Legendary Trader" Fatty

2. Recommended Books:

• "The Turtle Trading Rules" - About Trade Execution and Rules
• "Wyckoff Method" - Helpful for altcoins and major controlled coins
• "Advanced Trend Technical Analysis" - Help you get started with technical analysis

3. Recommended indicators to pay attention to:

• Interest rate level
• Expansion and contraction amounts
• Stablecoin Market Capitalization Changes

4. Current Market Strategy Recommendations:

• Buy the dip with 10% of the position each time the price hits a new low.
• You can consider allocating some altcoins in preparation for the bull run in 2025.

5. Trading Principles:

• Never make big mistakes, avoid large drawdowns at once.
• Believe in long-term profitability, don't expect a "quick return"
• Use time as leverage, don't treat funds as leverage.