Crypto Market Outlook for the Next Month: Challenges and Opportunities Coexist

In the coming weeks, the crypto market may experience a period of significant volatility. Spot positions may face substantial pullbacks, and investors need to weigh whether to proactively avoid risks. Although this time may be uncomfortable, if one can persist and hold through this phase, the next wave of increases may bring considerable profits for certain key cryptocurrencies and even hope to offset previous losses.

The market has not "ended"; a new round of increases is expected in the next 4-8 weeks. This expectation is based on several factors, including the high dominance rate of Bitcoin, seasonal factors, the potential rise of the Ethereum/Bitcoin ratio, and market capital rotation. In addition, the government's relatively positive attitude towards encryption and the minor resistance in the macroeconomic environment theoretically create favorable conditions for the market.

In the next wave of rising prices, investors should consider gradually shifting to a seller role. If they choose to continue holding during the trough, the subsequent selling strategy should gradually lean towards safer assets, such as Bitcoin and stablecoins. As the market cycle progresses, investors need to gradually lower their risk, reduce their position size, and exit the market gradually through dollar-cost averaging, rather than liquidating all at once.

Regarding the upcoming market rotation, it is currently difficult to make clear predictions. From now on, the market may be more favorable for traders rather than long-term holders. Certain coins may attract a large amount of buying, while others may rise slowly. It is hard to predict in advance which coins or sectors will become market leaders. From a rotation perspective, it seems that all coins will rise, but at the same time, there is no overall upward trend.

Investors should not stubbornly hold onto cryptocurrencies in order to achieve unrealistic target prices. It is very likely that many cryptocurrencies will not reach their historical highs again. While some mainstream cryptocurrencies may do so, a bull market does not mean that all cryptocurrencies will return to their historical highs. Adapting to market conditions and taking profits in a timely manner is the wise move.

If the portfolio is highly diversified, it is recommended to consider selling 50-75% or more of the holdings during the next wave of price increase, when the rotation ends. For example, when the artificial intelligence sector rises, you can choose to sell related cryptocurrencies; or when tokens representing physical assets have a good price increase, take profits in a timely manner.

In the next period, investors should try to consolidate their investments, reduce the number of new positions opened, and lower the overall variety of holdings. As for when the next significant pullback similar to the summer of 2024 will occur, it is currently difficult to determine. It is expected that there may be another 3-6 months, after which the market could become very bad and welcome another round of pullback.

The market may enter what is known as a "super cycle", but caution is still advised. Investors should set reasonable risk control targets, such as keeping their portfolio's drawdown from the historical peak to around 30-40%.

The task of investors is to continuously analyze data and constantly reassess the peaks and endpoints of market cycles. When the market begins to turn, the situation can become very complex. Even when a bull market ends, there will still be many people shouting, "The bull market is still on." This situation is always difficult to predict, but vigilance is necessary. Do not try to predict too far into the future; accept market information and adjust strategies based on actual conditions.

Finally, investors must conduct independent research and not blindly follow the opinions of others. Everyone's trading strategies are different, and one should not fully rely on others' exit strategies. If one can exit the market with significant profits, then that is already a successful investor.